Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 12 июня 2026!

Deal on the finish line - but the IRGC objects and Khamenei stays silent

Pakistan's prime minister announced the finalisation of the U.S.-Iran memorandum text, and Qatar's delegation achieved a breakthrough with Araqchi and Qalibaf present - but IRGC Commander General Vahidi, also in the room, disagreed with several terms. The text has been sent to Khamenei for final approval, which has not arrived. An Iranian MP already called the new version "more damaging" to Iran than previous drafts. Agreement agreed by everyone except those who decide. Classic Iranian diplomacy.

UAE unfreezes up to $20 billion for Iran - the price of neutrality revealed

Reuters reports the UAE will unlock at least $10 billion in Iranian oil revenues, with the total potentially reaching $20 billion - part of it paid in exchange for Iran's commitment not to attack the Emirates during the war's final weeks. Three billion has already arrived in cash by plane. UAE neutrality cost Tehran one withheld strike - and earned $20 billion. Expensive restraint, but rational.

Iran strikes Bahrain air base - fuel depots hit during peace talks

Iranian missiles struck fuel storage and a newly built hangar at ISA Air Base in Bahrain, hitting American military infrastructure at the precise moment the peace deal is being finalised. CNN separately revealed that in mid-May the U.S. planned a ground operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpile - Trump cancelled it after commanders projected significant American casualties. Iran signs peace with one hand and hits Bahrain with the other. Multitasking at the negotiating table.

Putin reveals the numbers: 700,000 on the front, 2.4 million in uniform

Putin set the official strength of Russia's armed forces at 2.399 million, with 1.51 million active servicemen, confirming a grouping of over 700,000 in the war zone. Russia is expanding its low-orbit satellite constellation - a Starlink equivalent for controlling heavy drones - with 16 new satellites already launched. Putin also revealed the "secret of war": strike enemy infrastructure to deter attacks on Russian civilian targets. The secret of war, disclosed in year three. Better late than never.

Sweden warns: Russia-NATO combat is coming soon

Sweden's parliamentary defence committee published a report assessing direct military conflict between Russia and NATO as likely in the near term. The U.S. simultaneously warned Ukraine of an imminent Oresnik threat - a separate signal, a separate recipient, a shared alarm. Sweden joins NATO, two years pass, and now it's writing reports about war with Russia. Welcome to the alliance.

Russia and the Taliban sign a military cooperation deal

Moscow and the Taliban movement concluded a military-technical cooperation agreement covering weapons supplies, personnel training and intelligence sharing - nominally targeting ISIS-Khorasan. Russia gains access to Afghan security infrastructure and cross-border route intelligence; the Taliban gains military support without human rights conditions attached. UN sanctions against the Taliban don't trouble Moscow. Neither do sanctions against Russia itself.

Zelensky strips Russian of language protections - the Constitution notwithstanding

Kyiv signed a law removing Russian from the protections of the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages, despite Ukraine's own Constitution guaranteeing its free development. The EU simultaneously announced the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on June 15 - European integration and linguistic rollback advancing in the same legislative session. EU membership track and language rights rollback arrive in the same package.