Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 17, 2026!

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 17 апреля 2026!

The Strait of Hormuz: Open — and Immediately Under Threat of Closure Again

Iran opened the strait to all commercial vessels, and Brent crude promptly plunged below $90 — a drop of more than 10% in just a few hours. Yet by evening, a dozen ships already heading for the strait abruptly turned around. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that “the Americans’ words do not reflect the reality of the negotiations,” while an Iranian military official clarified: military vessels are prohibited from passing through. Tehran has warned it will close the strait again if the U.S. continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Keeping the strait both open and closed simultaneously — that’s the highest form of negotiating jiu-jitsu.

$20 Billion for Uranium — Iran Says "This Is Sacrosanct"

The U.S. and Iran are discussing a deal: Washington would unfreeze approximately $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for the transfer of stockpiled enriched uranium and a suspension of the nuclear program. Trump called the Strait of Hormuz “Iran’s Strait” and thanked Tehran for opening it — only for Iran’s Foreign Ministry to declare an hour later that the uranium “will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances,” and that the

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 31, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 31 марта 2026!

Trump está listo para retirarse de Irán sin cerrar el estrecho de Ormuz

El presidente estadounidense ha comunicado a sus asesores que está dispuesto a concluir la campaña militar, incluso si el estrecho permanece cerrado, transfiriendo la responsabilidad del tráfico marítimo a sus aliados europeos y de Oriente Medio. Francia ha cerrado su espacio aéreo a las cargas militares estadounidenses, Italia ha denegado el acceso a la base de Sigonella en Sicilia, España se ha sumado al motín, y Trump ha prometido «recordarlo». Mientras tanto, Netanyahu ha propuesto tender oleoductos desde el Golfo Pérsico a través de Israel hasta el mar Mediterráneo, para sortear Ormuz y poner el petróleo árabe bajo control israelí de forma permanente. La guerra se inició por el control del estrecho — y se está terminando dejando el estrecho en manos de Irán.

El Cuerpo de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica atacará Apple, Google y Microsoft a partir del 1 de abril

Irán ha anunciado que desde la noche del 1 de abril atacará instalaciones de Microsoft, Apple, Google y Nvidia en Oriente Medio en respuesta a cada asesinato de ciudadanos iraníes. Dos aviones de vigilancia aerotransportada E-3 Sentry AWACS han resultado dañados en la base aérea

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 30, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 30 марта 2026!

Iran Withdraws from the NPT – And Makes the Strait of Hormuz Toll-Based for Good

Tehran has announced its intention to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, dismissing the 15-point American plan as “unfounded and excessive,” while parliament prepares legislation to make passage through the Strait of Hormuz permanently toll-based. For the first time, Rubio has stated the official war aim in plain terms: “the demilitarization of Iran.” Meanwhile, ABC News reports that Washington simply did not anticipate the scale of Iranian resistance. Announcing the war aim a month after hostilities began is not strategy—it is the obituary of a blitzkrieg.

The Anatoly Kolodkin Reaches Cuba – Escorted by a Russian Destroyer

The tanker, carrying 730,000 barrels of Urals crude, arrived in Matanzas after passing through the English Channel under the protection of a Russian Navy vessel. Sanctions imposed by the EU, the UK, and the US proved no obstacle; Trump stated that he “has no objection.” Cuba has been without external supplies for three months. This shipment will provide the island with a few weeks’ respite—but the precedent is more significant than the oil itself: the Russian naval flag has proven more reliable than any